Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
